Desenvolvimento turístico e crescimento económico: validade da Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis no caso da Madeira
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59072/rper.vi65.579Palavras-chave:
Região Autónoma da Madeira; Desenvolvimento Económico; Cointegração; CausalidadeResumo
A grande maioria das economias insulares, tais como a Madeira, estão limitadas á maximização das oportunidades de desenvolvimento em setores não dependentes do facto distância, como no caso do turismo. Constata-se na literatura uma série de estudos empíricos de cariz econométrico centrados na identificação e caracterização da relação turismo-PIB. Embora um número finito de estudos falhe em reportar a existência de uma relação estatisticamente significativa, a maioria dos estudos confirma o que se designa por Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH), hipótese que estabelece o setor do turismo como fator dinamizador do crescimento do PIB. Este estudo analisa a validade da TLGH para o caso da Madeira, no período de 1978 a 2019. Os resultados do teste de cointegração confirmam uma relação de longo-prazo entre o desenvolvimento turístico e económico da região, conclusão que se estende á relação de curto prazo com base numa abordagem Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Dada a necessidade de ter em conta a existência de quebras estruturais, aplicam-se testes apropriados. De ponto de vista da causalidade, a conclusão principal remete para a identificação de linha de causalidade turismo->PIB. Os resultados parecem sustentar a perceção genérica relativamente á sobre dependência da região do setor do turismo.
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