The State of Bahia in The Recession: A Multifactorial Shift-Share Analysis of Municipalities Between 2014 and 2017

Abstract

In recent years, the economic crisis faced by Brazil has heterogeneously affected its regions and states. Given the economic representativeness of Bahia’s state in Northeast region, this article analyzes the performance of the sectoral economic structure in Bahia’s municipalities during the most recent period of the Brazilian economic crisis - 2014 and 2017. To do so, we use the multifactorial shift-share method based on employment data by sector from the Annual List of Social Information (RAIS) of the Ministry of Economy. The main results show that the largest municipalities, especially those located in the Metropolitan region of Salvador, were characterized as “Generalized Recession”, that is, marked by poor local and sectoral performance. On the other hand, both the West and the South contributed to mitigate the state's recession.